Heuristics and Biases: The Psychologoy of Intuitive Judgement
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Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions.
This is the 2003 reprint with corrections. Searchable pdf format.
he/she does not like the studen t), and misattribution (e.g., confusing romantic attraction and fear). In order to avoid contamination, people must first detect that it exists. This is often quite difficult, because people have poor access to the processes by which they form their judgments (Nisbett & Wilson, 1977b). Ms. Green could 185 Copyrighted material 186 Timothy D. Wilson, David B. Centerbar, and Nancy Brekke Unwanted mental processing is triggered Awa.re of the unwanted processing
representativeness. Our first set of studies of the conjunction rule were conducted in 1974, using occupation and political affiliation as target attributes to be predicted singly or in conjunction from brief Copyrighted material 24 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman personality sketches (see Tversky & Kahneman, 1982, for a brief summ ary): The studies described in the present section replicate and extend our earlier work. We used the following personality sketches of two fictitious
representative of the instance) was selected to be a basic level category name. The superordinate categories are natural ones, designated by familiar proper names or labels. To strengthen the tendency to view them as a union, their names were prefaced by the words one ofthe or some kind of For example, the basic level cause of death "car accident" was paired with the superordinate "some kind of unnatural cause.'' All questions were accompanied by seven options. To give a typical example, the list
relian ce on subjective recall experiences, rather than reliance on the accessible declarative information per se. Complicating things further, which source of information individuals draw on depends on their processing motivation, as seen here (Grayson & Schwarz, 1999; Rothman & Schwarz, 1998). As a result, it is not sufficient to know what is accessible at the time of judgment; instead, we must consider the ease with which the accessible information comes to mind and the processing strategy
Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability David Dum1ing, Judith A. Me!:f_ermvitz, and Amy D. Holzberg 313 324 When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism David A. Armvr ttnd Shelley E. Taylor 334 Copyrighted material Contents E. Norm s and CounterfachJals 20 Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives Daniel Kahneman and Dale T. Miller 21 Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself Dale T.